Near Miss Object Predicted 29 Sep 2004

[H44]

Asteroid 4179 will be a near miss on 28 Sep missing Earth by only a million miles.  Based on ASO (H41) astrometry, I predict the time of about 0027 UT on 28 Sep.  The asteroid will brighten to just under 9th magnitude on or about 25 Sep so it will be one to look for.  Clay's astrometry of this object shows very good accuracy, so I am confident at this point in time with my orbital elements based on those observations, and the time of closest approach.

For more details go to:
http://www.arksky.org/eph/4179.htm

[mfortsm]

Toutatis!  Even the name makes me uneasy.  I am taking off all next week and with good skys predicted this is one of my targets at 16th+ mag(?).  I don't normally go for astroids but this one has my interest.  Mike

[H44]

This is one to watch out for Mike.  Its a city sized rock and its going to get closer than I would like.  Hope the astrometry keeps coming and continues to show it as a miss.    So far so good!

I will continue to update the elements as we get more observations to see where it continues to head.

Brian

[saburo76]

Message deleted by Robert

[H44]

Thanks for the heads up!

I hope it stays at 1 million miles and doesn't get any closer.

Btw, can you relay the following message to Dr. Clay, I've been totally unable to contact him due to his e-mail issues. Also, is there a fax number for the Arkansas Sky Observatory?
Please tell Dr. Clay that Robert in Japan is trying to contact him about the 14" scope that he asked me whether I was interested in.
Very much appreciated!!

I am not aware of any problems on our @arksky.org email accounts, however I have forwarded your message to Clay.

[saburo76]

Thank you Brian,

Very much appreciated!

[H44]

Based on new observations by H41 (P. Clay Sherrod) over the last few days, I have recalculated the orbital elements of this object.  The updated date and time of closest approach is now:

29 Sep 1057 UT
Based on an Epoch date of 04 AUG 2004 0h UT
Distance at closest approach: 0.01047 AU(1,566,406 km)

Note that this approach is the closest in this century of any known asteroid at least as large as Toutatis.

[woventext]

I live in Murrieta, CA., Approximately 60 miles inland (East) of the Pacific Ocean. About 1 month ago, I noticed a "star" in the Southeastern skies about 4:00 A.M. It remained stationary for several weeks then began to move in tandem with the other stars, constellations, etc. Today is 8/19/04, and this "star" is HUGE! It's color is almost halogen-like and appears oblong. It's brighter than the moon! Is this Toutatis? If it is, we are in some serious trouble here on Earth. Can someone make me feel a little bit more optimistic about a future life? Thanks to anyone who may wish to respond to my query.
  Kathy in Murrieta      

[Grizz]

Kathy,

Might you be looking at Venus? Its very big (well bigger than stars appear) and very bright. Also it will  appear to brighten as it goes through its phases.

Read this http://arksky.org/toutatis.htm

[woventext]

Thanks for responding Grizz:
 Unfortunately, there's a whole lot of other people out here in California that are wondering as to just exactly what this thing is. (See email) We can see Venus and it's looking pretty normal. Trust me, this object is anything but normal. You can't see it from where you are? We see it coming from the Southeast; more easterly actually. I believe the constellation Sagitarias is just off to the right or more Southerly. Also we've been experiencing a rather strange phenomena in the last three weeks. No clouds, Grizz. It's weird. We haven't seen cloud one for weeks then suddenly, last Friday, a rain storm came out of nowhere. It didn't rain that much but the lightening was pink! The thunder was unrelenting and a house was actually struck by the lightening a few blocks from where I live. A good portion of someone's house burned up. This is very unusual weather for Southern CA. It rarely rains where I live. We are a semi-desert community. We've had a heat wave the last few weeks, too.
  Any other ideas?
Thanks again,
Kathy in Murrieta