PROMISING PERSEIDS PREDICTED for 2005!

The 2005 Perseids: The famous PERSEID Meteor Storm will pass across the Earth's orbit once again this year in early August, but this year is particularly favorable for MANY meteors to be seen. Some astronomers are calling for quite a celestial show from this shower in 2005, yet others are not so optimistic. The moon will be first quarter the evening of Aug. 12 and will interfere with sighting of fainter members of this shower which should begin to streak across out skies about 10 p.m.

Do not wait for August 11-12 however....this is a long duration shower and meteors will be easily seen during the first week of the month when skies are hampered by only a thin to growing waxing crescent moon.

In 1992 Comet Swift-Tuttle, the parent object that spawns the Perseid meteoroid cloud, shed a great amount of dust in its wake and now sets the stage for intense activity as the earth passes through that debris; this will be the FIRST year that the earth has actually gone directly through this debris cloud since it was intensified. Although meteors can be expected to be seen just as soon as the skies darken on the evening of August 11, the peak is scheduled for early in morning of August 12 (about 4 a.m. CDT) and throughout the evening of August 12; The Moon will be a narrow waning crescent in 2005, with Europe and Western Asia in the most favorable viewing locations. The peak of this year's show will take place on Thursday night-Friday Morning, August 11-12, with residuals coming back for an encore perhaps on the evenings of August 12, although strong moonlight will interfere until long after midnight. NOTE that there is some indication that a SECONDARY PEAK might actually be seen in ideal skies on the MORNING of August 12, somewhere around dawn or just before on that morning, as the earth will be sweeping through a cloud of material that has been ejected from the parent comet (below) of this dependable meteor shower. In fact, it is possible that this secondary cloud might produce more meteors in 2005 than the main swarm.

Note that Comet Swift-Tuttle's (P/1862) one-revolution trail from 1862 will pass inside the Earth’s orbit this year. At the time of Perseids (the annual meteor shower associated with this comet), this occurs at 11 August 20:54 UT (evening hours, local time, of August 12). If there were a closer approach of this comet to the earth, a spectacular meteor storm would be expected...but with these conditions and no prior such close approaches to compare to, it is uncertain what kind of a shower this will give for 2005. Because of similar conditions, but with the earth passing directly through the major debris pocket of the comet, perhaps the best meteor shower of history will occur with the Perseids in 2028.

This is a long duration shower, with many (as many as two dozen per hour) being seen from August 9 through the 20th; during the PEAK, expect to see at least 60 or more (perhaps double that number!) around 2 a.m., streaming from the constellation of Perseus, high in the northeastern sky. Best views are afforded by positioning your feet to the EAST and facing directly overhead. SEE COMPLETE PERSEID ARTICLE (including wonderful historical references) by P. Clay Sherrod under the ASO "Current News" at http://arksky.org/perseids.htm. A move is underway for observers to actually monitor the MOON during the Perseids via CCD, digital and visual means to look for flashes that may indeed be part of impacts of Perseid meteorites against the lunar surface. SEE "Current News" for details!

AND YES....there ARE other meteor showers in August!

August 1 (and July 31....) - Capricornid Meteors. The moon will be a thin waning crescent for this show, so this could be an excellent year for observing this shower. Remains of comet Honda-Mrkos-Padusakova, about 35 meteors per hour - MANY which are bright fireballs! - can be expected in the morning hours; nearly due south of overhead about midnight.

August 6 - Southern Aquarid Meteors - look on the meridian, southern skies about 11 p.m. local time for only a few meteors, perhaps 7-8 per hour. This is a curious shower, comprised of two peaks: this one, and another on about August 21-23. Note that meteors from this (these?) showers are not seen yearly and observations are badly needed to fill in the missing gaps about our knowledge of them. Some years no meteors are seen, but since the late 1800's when this double shower was noted and later confirmed, there have been distinct radiants (the "northern" and "southern") seen throughout many years. Observations of this shower are badly needed and this is a perfect year, with a nearly NEW moon absent from our observing fields!

August 20 - Kappa Cygnid Meteors - This is a very poor month for these meteors to be seen to their fullest. The full moon will dominate the skies this year. Typically many of these meteors are seen along with Perseid meteors, leaving very fine trains of smoke in their wakes! The Cygnid (and the Andromedids, below) will be nearly overhead by 2 a.m.

August 31 - Andromedid Meteors - there will be a waxing moon on the morning of this shower, so chances of seeing a good display are good. In 1885, 13,000 Andromedids were seen per hour, all fragments of a now-disentigrated BIELA's Comet. Very unpredictable, this meteor shower needs observations during such excellent times as 2005. The shower radiant will be nearly directly overhead for mid-northern latitudes about the time the moon rises this year.

Clear skies and bright streaks to all!

Dr. Clay
ASO - Petit Jean Mountain